Muammar Gaddafi’s appearance on Libyan state television on May 12th was another sure reminder of the dictator’s determination to stay in power. His ever-present and often ruthless desire for power has been a consistent feature of Libyan politics over the past 42 years. Yet, Western responses to the Libyan Revolt have not mirrored this consistency. Initial reaction by the likes of America, the UK and France at the outbreak of revolt in February consisted largely of strong words and limited action. However, since then those aforementioned powers have stepped in and enforced a ‘no-fly zone’ over Libya preventing mass civilian bombings by Gaddafi’s forces and latterly supporting certain rebel groups with supplies. The US has attempted to highlight that this is a joint, UN backed mission in order to prevent analogies being drawn between this conflict and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. However, similarities can be drawn between the dictatorships and societies of Gaddafi’s Libya and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
Will Libya Turn Into The Next Iraq?
Libya, like Iraq under Saddam Hussein has been a dictatorship under the control of one leader for many years. Throughout this period opposition to the leader has been crushed to ensure political cohesion. Thus, there is no significantly organized political or military opposition. The loosely termed ‘rebels’ who have been actively fighting Gaddafi’s forces are not a cohesive group, split geographically between Eastern and Western resistance groups. The Western group said to be the more organized of the two is still reported to head an ‘improvised campaign’. In short no group has significant militaristic or political experience, which could thus create a power vacuum as was experienced after the toppling of Saddam Hussein. This may especially be the case as little is known of the ‘rebels’ political goals or identity. Libya, like Iraq is also a predominantly Muslim nation and therefore may have the potential to become a post-Gaddafi haven for Islamic extremism. Although this may be deemed a generalization the increasing humanitarian crisis will breed desperation and desperation commonly gives a voice to extremism.
A Return For Gaddafi?
Gaddafi’s appearance on state television, after the death of one of his sons, highlighted his dedication to maintaining control. The humanitarian crisis needs to be curbed and the return of stable rule has the potential to achieve this. This may be viewed as a morally abhorrent choice due to the massacres committed by Gaddafi’s forces since February, yet is clearly something being considered by Western forces. Early in the conflict Mark Mardel reported that General Ham from the U.S. African Command confirmed on March 22nd that a reinstatement of Gaddafi ‘could happen’. International human rights groups and numerous Libyans would be appalled at this proposition but its implementation may come about to prevent the development of another extremist stronghold. As a result a peaceful, long-term outcome to the horrors of Gaddafi’s reign may take a while to achieve.
Sources:
"Libya unrest: State TV shows Col. Gaddafi footage" BBC News, May 11, 2011
"Libya revolt as it happened: Monday" BBC News, March 22, 2011
Patrick Skinner - I'm a political writer interested mainly in international relations as well as UK and Australian Politics. I also enjoy writing a broad ...
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